Iraq picture may not be ask bleak as it seems Eliana Perez

Over the past month, al Qaeda affiliated Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has made a concerted effort to seize the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Fallujah. Images of armed militants roaming the streets have generated widespread concern that Anbar Province – the heart of Sunni Iraq – is once again sliding into chaos. But while the danger in Anbar and Iraq more generally is real, understanding the threat there requires historical context and objective analysis. Indeed, both Iraqi and U.S. policy leaders should see opportunity as well as danger in the reported chaos in Anbar.
The danger, while sensationalized, is nonetheless a reality. An ISIS victory in Anbar against Nuri al-Maliki’s government, and its increasing power in rebel-held Syria, raises the specter of a resurgent al Qaeda in the heart of the Middle East. Some believe that al Qaeda’s actions might fan the flames of a burgeoning regional sectarian war between Sunni and Shia. Under this view, sectarian conflict in Iraq – fueled in Syria – might widen and lead to greater instability in much of the Middle East.
On the surface, at least, Anbar looks like an evolving disaster. And the daily reporting from Anbar certainly paints a grim picture. However, a more careful analysis reveals some exaggerations in reporting. At various times over the past month, ISIS fighters have taken control over parts of both Ramadi and Fallujah. They have rebuffed negotiations and defeated some Iraqi military and police efforts. But has ISIS seized, or controlled the two largest cities in Anbar Province? Evidence to support this claim is insufficient and conflicting. Most of the areas reported to be under ISIS influence are the same areas that supported al Qaeda from 2004-2006.
The ISIS attacks have received a lot of attention, but ISIS does not represent a majority of Iraqi Sunni in Anbar. Many Sunni Anbari leaders continue to reject al Qaeda. Some have even openly, if reluctantly, made temporary accommodations with the Shia-led Iraqi government to help expel ISIS from Anbar. ISIS is in Anbar, but it does not control Anbar.


 http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/01/30/iraq-picture-may-not-be-as-bleak-as-it-seems/?hpt=wo_r1