Tuesday, October 23, 2012

the truth behind Obama and Romney's scattered numbers - Noe Perales


Over the last two weeks, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney closed the gap on President Barack Obama in pre-election polls, but the sometimes inconsistent numbers have been confusing. Why do polls seem to be all over the place? And how could Romney be leading in some national polls while Obama holds an advantage in polling in the battleground states?
The variability in polling numbers is the source of much of the confusion. The polls have been telling us that the race is very close.
There are four things to remember to help make sense of it all:

1. Polls are always "all over the place."
2. The race is close enough that slight differences in numbers will appear to support very different narratives about the state of the race.
3.According to the HuffPost Pollster estimates, there is very little difference between the candidates' standings nationwide and in the battleground states.
4.Any one poll may produce a very different "narrative" about where the race stands, both nationally and in the battleground states.


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